February 21, 2012 : When the Dassault Rafale was declared the lowest bidder in the highly anticipated MMRCA competition, the U.S. government signaled that it was still "willing to share information" with India on the F-35 Lightning II, the centrepiece of America's single largest military hardware programme ever. The seemingly innocuous comment was technically accurate, but it but glossed completely over the substantive, and fairly high-profile, efforts both Washington and the aircraft's maker have made to persuade India of the virtues of being a future operator of the type. For over four years, the Pentagon and Lockheed have put a great deal of weight behind the F-35 as a possible platform for the Indian armed forces. While the F-35A was initially positioned as the pot of gold at the end of the technological rainbow that the Indian Air Force could ride with the F-16IN Super Viper, the latter's elimination from the MMRCA competition last April meant that the F-35A for India presumably took on even greater significance for the world's largest developer of advanced military systems. In official documentation, in planning files, in presentations within the Pentagon's Defence Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), the F-35 for India was, and remains, a key focus area, and one that the U.S. won't be willing to let go of just yet.

In November 2011, a few weeks after the MMRCA bids had been opened for the final comparison, Defence Minister A.K. Antony told Parliament, "The US has not offered India a partnership in the development of the world’s most advanced fighter plane, F-35 joint strike fighter", an answer that was technically accurate, but again glossed over the depth of engagement on the F-35 for India so far.

While India has willingly listened to U.S. overtures, and in one instance solicited information on the second and third variants of the F-35, it has kept a studied distance from making any commitments, preferring to wait and watch. The Indian Air Force, which has been briefed several times about the primary F-35A, holds the programme in high esteem. But opinion is largely unanimous — that if the IAF were to ever be an operator of the F-35, it would be a political decision, not based on any foreseeable requirement. On its part, the IAF has dismissed suggestions from some quarters that the MMRCA purchase be mothballed in favour of a delayed, outright purchase of F-35 aircraft.

A senior Lockheed-Martin executive says, "The IAF has been frankly impressed with the capabilities that the F-35 brings to the table. You can choose to model your requirements on what you think you need. Or you can look at an advanced aircraft like the F-35 and say, that meets my requirement better than anything else I can think of."

Apart from the well-known troubles that still stand in the way of the F-35 entering operational service with its primary customers, there are several things that present themselves for consideration were India to ever consider the F-35 as a future asset, in any of its variants.

The most obvious: India is pumping funds into two next generation fighter aircraft programmes — the Indo-Russian fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) and the indigenous ADA-led Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The fact that both aircraft are being developed as stealthy high performance fighters with a pronounced stand-off strike capability that fills any conceivable void that the F-35A could really fill. In November 2010, Lockheed-Martin's Michael R. Griswold, director of advanced development programmes, had said, "The fifth generation JV with Russia? Well, all I can say is best of luck with that!" What appeared to be a simple barb that underscores the technological rivalry that still exists between the US and Russia, may actually be something the U.S. is counting on, at least in part.

Second, there is optimism that the MMRCA will be India's last ever purchase of a manned fighter aircraft from abroad (not counting follow-on orders and upgrades): with the Tejas programme maturing, hopefully, into full-fledged operations and the two stealth aircraft programmes expected to bloom over the decade, there is hope within the establishment that for the first time there could be serious self-reliance in India's combat aircraft acquisitions and planning. But tangible considerations have frequently been outranked by political motivations and sensitivities. That there are at least two well-known fighter types in the IAF inventory that were ordered more for the diplomatic fruits that were to be had than any hard requirements from the ultimate user is a matter of historical record.

For the F-35, therefore, the Indian Navy may be a more possible bet. In 2010, Lockheed-Martin decided to respond to the Navy's request for information on a future carrier fighter with data on the F-35B jumpjet and F-35C carrier-borne fighter. While the Navy had simply requested information on the F-35, without specifying a variant, Lockheed-Martin has considered it prudent to pitch both variants. While the Navy uses the last of its Sea Harrier jumpjets, the F-35B is being pitched as a logical next step, since it will be the only new generation STOVL fighter being produced. Even the last batch of Royal Navy Harriers that India had once expressed interest in, have been acquired by the US Marines. While the Indian Navy has long made the decision to move to STOBAR operations, kicking off with the MiG-29K, and eventually the LCA-Navy, there is a sense that the operational flexibility and appeal of another jumpjet will be of deep appeal to a navy that has great affection for what its Harriers could do. The F-35C on the other hand, as a CATOBAR jet, would perceivably compete with the MiG-29K, Rafale and two concept jets — the naval Typhoon and Sea Gripen. The Navy is yet to move forward on its next generation carrier-based fighter aircraft programme, but as long as the field remains open, the F-35 Lightning II has hope.