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Modi's diplomacy – Out of the box approach

Issue No. 16 | August 16-31, 2014By Ranjeet KumarPhoto(s): By PIB

Narendra Modi has taken over the reigns of India at a time when global geopolitical situation is in a state of flux. But at the same time India’s magnetic strength is also getting stronger with whom many big powers from both camps are eager to align with. The hopes and expectations from Modi’s India are growing very fast as Modi promises to transform the country very soon into an economically vibrant nation. The huge middle class market, almost of the size of the European Union is once again resurgent and promising growth and employment to the developed economies who still are struggling to come out of recession.

Hence Modi is the international leader of the year as he offers economic opportunities to developed countries but he will have to make a tight rope walking, to balance relations in extreme delicate fashion, with a single aim of protecting and promoting India’s national and strategic interests. Being an astute politician himself, Modi’s diplomatic initiatives have proved to be of far reaching significance in international arena. Starting with his swearing in invite on May 26, 2014, to all the heads of States of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Modi has made forays in international diplomacy with great tact as his invite to SAARC leaders has indeed proved to be a master stroke, coming out from a political leader who till now was deeply engrossed in domestic affairs. The SAARC invite has reenergised and galvanised India’s dormant relations with immediate neighbors, which has been bane of Indian foreign policy and proving to be extremely difficult. But the way Modi has won the heart and minds of the people of Bhutan and then of the people of Nepal speaks volumes of his political knack of engaging with the world leaders also.

These moves of Modi will lead to regaining the clout in India’s strategic backyard, for which India will also have to make smart moves to strengthen intra-SAARC cooperation and removing mutual mistrust. Modi tells us that India’s destinies are linked with its neighbors with whom he will walk extra mile to deepen relations. So, when from the very first day he startled the world by hosting India’s neighboring leaders, he made his intent very clear and by making his first foreign visit to Bhutan, the tiny Himalayan kingdom, he reemphasised his priorities in no uncertain terms. Tells Rajeev Sharma, a columnist on diplomatic issues with China’s Global Times, Modi has given an example of Out Of Box thinking by focusing on Near Abroad – Bhutan, Nepal and next Myanmar. All these share land boundaries with both China and India. Modi’s neighborhood watch diplomacy will counter the China factor in these countries.”

Modi’s first multilateral diplomatic engagement was only one and half month after his taking over, during which he fared very well as he met world leaders like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jin Ping individually. In fact, Modi is no stranger to international leaders. As a Chief Minister of Gujarat he has been to China four times, to Japan three times and to Israel two times, where he was given access to all the top leaders, as they knew very well that Modi is the real business oriented politician with whom they can do business with. Knowing very well the state of relations between India and China Modi never hesitated to visit and seek investment from China in his home state and as Prime Minister when he met the Chinese President he did not mince words that he means business while dealing with China on bilateral issues and at the same time promised to expedite the Chinese wish and proposal to set up four Industrial parks in India especially for Chinese investors. Chinese businessmen wants to exploit not only Indian market but also use India based Industrial parks as business and production hub for their business activities in South Asia.

Modi’s slogan of Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas (all together, development for all) has even impressed the US Secretary of State John Kerry, who mentioned this in his speech delivered at a US think tank. This slogan can be reinterpreted in strategic sense also, as Modi in his very short tenure of two months has given a clear message that he will extend his one hand to China while at the same time shake the other hand with Shinzo Abe’s. Modi has conveyed this through his actions. He would like to take along with him not only China but its bete noire Japan also. Though Chinese President Xi Jin Ping has announced his intention to make India his first bilateral foreign sojourn , Modi would be making his first bilateral foreign visit to Japan outside South Asia.

But Modi’s diplomacy has not been flawless. Says Rajeev Sharma, “Japan was badly handled by first announcing and later postponing his Japan visit. Modi should not have tried a meeting with Germany’s Merkel in the first place as he had given word of honour to Abe that Japan will be the first destination of his bilateral overseas visit.”

But It is indeed Modi’s magnetic appeal of his strong personality that the world leaders came calling to pay obeisance to him on his landslide victory in Parliament elections and after assuming country’s reigns. As the world leaders called Modi to congratulate him they dispatched their senior leaders no less than their foreign ministers among whom was the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi who was sent by President Xi has his Special Envoy on June 8. This was followed by the French Foreign minister Laurent Fabius, Russian deputy prime minister Rozogin, British Foreign minister William Hague, etc. and ultimate of them all was the US Secretary of State John Kerry who was indeed given a snub publicly by Sushma Swaraj on the issue of snooping and when Kerry met Modi, he was told bluntly of India’s reasons for not signing the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement.

Modi’s knack of giving messages in abbreviations like the HIT (Highways, Iways, and Transways) and CCCC has impressed the common people and leaders alike. CCCC meaning cooperation, constitution, culture and connectivity sums up the entire crux of relationships between nations. His HIT has hit peoples sentiments, who has understood through his abbreviated slogan that he means business and his words are not empty rhetoric. In Nepal from anti India politics to development politics. Modi has indeed succeeded in making a dent in peoples views towards India while bringing the people and the governmental leaders closer to India for which the strongest critic of India the Maoist leader Prachanda also could not hide his warm feelings towards Modi and his credibility as a good and sincere friend of Nepal. Modi has been able to convince the people and the leaders of the neighboring countries that India is sincerely interested in helping the economic growth by focusing on development politics as he himself has proved in his own home state and the country which helped him register a resounding win over the ruling Congress led UPA. Being a grassroot leader himself his bid to develop emotional bonding with the people will indeed go a long way in erasing the anti-India mindsets which will help the leaders of those countries to plan and execute the joint strategies with India, the so called big brother which indeed can play a role of elder brother, which is a fact as shown by the geography and demography.

India’s neighboring countries are culturally, historically and civilizationally aligned with India who share common language and life style, food, clothes and way of thinking. It is interesting and intriguing why India’s neighboring countries which are more culturally and historically aligned with India, yet, in recent decades China has made deeper forays in neighboring countries capturing not only the markets but also the strategic space, though Chinese culture and civilisation is alien to them. It would be a challenge before Modi, how to dissuade India’s neighbors from getting threateningly close to China and cajole hem to tie their destiny with India. For this to happen India must give a hope of economic progress and must assure them that India would never interfere in their domestic politics. Perhaps during Nepal visit Modi has been able to convince the Nepali leaders that India was only interested in the well being of India’s neighbors, because of the dictum that if neighbors does not sleep in peace we can also not have a sound sleep.

While Modi has unraveled his neighborhood strategy his tactics of balancing China vs Japan and US relations are yet to unfold but its indication can be sensed as he has decided to visit Japan first as his first bilateral engagement. Modi’s biggest challenge would be to manage China’s evolution but his image of a strong personality and an assertive leader would certainly help him achieve India’s national goals. The assertive and aggressive behavior of China in South China Sea has been bothering India very much.

As India can not let China control the traffic movements in the South China Sea from where half of India’s maritime trade traffic is conducted. This requires shrewd handling of issues for which Modi must be ably assisted by his chosen advisors. In fact Modi passed his first international test in diplomacy when he came under intense US led pressure to sign on the WTO accord on Trade Facilitation Agreement. Modi vouched for the country’s poor rather than caring for employment growth in developed countries.

in the first week of September, the Chinese President’s visit in the second week of September to New Delhi and then by the end of September to USA. So the month of September will prove to be most crucial for Modi and Indian diplomacy which will set the tone and direction for India’s future engagements and proximity with the leaders of three biggest powers on earth. The trilateral dialogue among the three India, Japan and USA is also an indication that something is cooking and China is wary of their possible moves. His cautious moves have aptly been described by Brahma Chellaney as prudent gradualism. On diplomatic front, says Chellaney, Modi is charting an assertive dynamic approach.

Since India cannot let China control the South China Sea and Japan cannot let China control the East China Sea and South China Sea, India’s and Japan’s strategic interests converge and the US side would be too glad to assist which matches with its Rebalancing Asia policy earlier known as Pivot to Asia policy under which Obama had announced relocation of 60 percent of US naval resources to the South and East China Sea.

But China has been a cause of worry for India not only in the South China Sea but also in India’s neighborhood where China is engaged in an extreme discreet strategy of String of Pearls disguised in assistance in infrastructure development. In fact China has taken the space left unoccupied by India , which is evident from the fact that an Indian Prime Minister visited Nepal after 17 years. China has been using its money and muscle power to bring India’s neighbors closer to them and India simply remained a mute spectator with expressions of concerns which further alienated the neighbors from India and they understood the game of playing China card vis a vis India and extract maximum benefit from both of them.

Thus the challenge before Modi is to bring India and neighboring countries relations back to track and start living like good neighbors. India cannot achieve the status of big power if it is not able to bring its neighbours in peace and cooperation with India and under its economic domain and integrate their economies with India by vastly improving connectivities of road, air and sea between all the neighbors. Not only infrastructure but reestablishing close social and cultural links of the peoples, as we have seen in the European Union.

The challenge for Modi is to show new template for the relationships with its neighbors is South Asia taking European Union as a model, but Pakistan will prove to be the biggest hurdle in achieving the ambition of taking breakfast in Amritsar, lunch in Lahore and dinner in Kabul as very well enunciated by the previous Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Modi will have to carry this forward.

SAARC region remains the most uncooperative among all such economic groupings like ASEAN and European Union. Whereas SAARC conducts only five percent of trade of their world trade among the eight member countries, the ASEAN has achieved the 25 per cent trade exchanges and the EU has set an excellent example of over 52 per cent trade among all its 27 member countries. The EU has shown the workable concept of open borders unimaginable in South Asia especially between India and Pakistan and Afghanistan though EU type examples like India-Nepal and India-Bhutan does exist and India needs to at least open many trade entry and exit points to make each South Asian countries dependent among themselves.

This will make the SAARC region as attractive as ASEAN and will automatically empower India with the status of regional leader with a right to speak on their behalf in international arena. However, SAARC region cannot enjoy peace and prosperity as long as the area is infested with terrorists of various shades. Hence, fighting terrorism is another big challenge, for which Modi will have to deal with the terrible situation not only domestically but at the international level also. Only a socially peaceful, stable and terror free atmosphere domestically and around India’s borders can ensure economic development and attract foreign investment, which is the ultimate strategic aim of modern day world.